Government projects 2.5 per cent economic growth

The Government is projecting 2.5 per cent economic growth for Jamaica during the next fiscal year.

 

This is according to the 2018/19 Fiscal Policy Paper, which was tabled in the House of  Representatives by Finance Minister, Audley Shaw, on Thursday.

 

It is expected that continued strengthening of  most industries, particularly Agriculture, Fishing and Forestry; Mining and Quarrying; Hotels and Restaurants as well as Electricity and Water Supply will drive this growth.

 

This is based on increased demand associated with projected higher levels of  employment and investments; growth in external demand for Jamaica's goods and services; strengthening of  competitiveness in some industries; the roll-out of  major strategic investment projects; and recovery from flooding and excess rainfall last year.

 

The Agriculture, Fishing and Forestry sector, which was severely impacted by adverse weather, is expected to rebound by seven percent and also benefit from stronger linkages with the Hotels and Restaurants industry, which is expected to grow by four percent.

 

The Fiscal Policy Paper indicates that the projected outturn for Hotels and Restaurants is predicated on, among other things, increased visitor arrivals.

 

The increase in visitor arrivals is expected to be driven by a spike in hotel room stock and more flights into the island.  

 

Meanwhile, the Fiscal Policy Paper further points to a projected 25 per cent growth in Mining and Quarrying  based on the continued increase in the global demand for aluminium, which is expected to lead to higher demand for alumina.

 

The document further notes that the industry's growth will be supported by increases in the capacity utilization rate at local refineries, especially JISCO/ALPART in Nain, St. Elizabeth which continues to make significant investments to improve the plant's operations.

 

Additionally, the local industry is expected to benefit from market diversification, particularly targeting the Asian bloc.

 

The Electricity and Water sector is projected to grow by 2.5 per cent, based on increased business activities and housing stock, which are expected to lead to higher consumption.